Friday, May 11–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mixed in a quieter marketplace overnight, with European stocks mostly firmer and Asian stocks mostly weaker. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins.
The “outside markets” today find Nymex crude oil prices modestly higher and trading above $71.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is slightly lower on profit taking after hitting a 4.5-month high on Wednesday.
U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes import and export prices, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer and hit a six-week high in early U.S. trading. The bulls have gained the overall near-term technical advantage with this week’s good price gains. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 2,735.00 and then at 2,750.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at 2,700.00 and then at 2,680.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
June Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are firmer and hit another six-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 7,000.00 and then at 7,050.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 6,948.50 and then at 6,900.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer on short covering in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 143 27/32 and then at 144 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at 143 even and then at this week’s low of 142 15/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer on mild short covering in early U.S. trading today. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 119.24.5 and then at 119.28.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 119.06.0 and then at the contract low of 118.31.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The June U.S. dollar index is lower today on more profit taking after hitting a 4.5-month high on Wednesday. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 92.710 and then at Thursday’s high of 93.030. Shorter-term support is seen at 92.250 and then at 92.000. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
June Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls are in solid near-term technical control. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $71.63 and then at this week’s high of $71.89. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $71.00 and then at $70.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Grain futures were weaker overnight. The bulls have faded recently, amid good planting progress in the U.S. Corn Belt. Weather in the Corn Belt will now be a major fundamental factor for the next three months. Remember that the first week in July is historically a pivotal timeframe for the grain markets.