Thursday, December 7–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
In overnight news, China reported its November exports were up 0.5%, year-on-year, while its imports were down 0.6% in the period. The exports were just slightly better than expected, while the imports were a bit less than expected.
Traders are starting to look ahead to the U.S. employment situation report on Friday morning—arguably the most important U.S. data point of the month. The November non-farm payrolls number is seen coming in at up 190,000 versus a rise of 150,000 in the October report. Wednesday’s ADP national employment report showed a modest rise of 103,000 in November, versus expectations for a gain of around 130,000.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $70.00 a barrel. Prices on Wednesday hit a five-month low. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.151%.
U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Challenger job-cuts report, monthly wholesale trade, and consumer credit.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,657.75 and then at 4,700.00. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 4,594.00 and then at 4,569.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 16,241.25 and then at 16,300.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 15,920.25 and then at 15,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading after hitting a nearly three-month high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 120 25/32 and then at 121 even. Shorter-term support lies at Wednesday’s low of 119 1/32 and then at 118 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading after hitting a more-than-three-month high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 111.09.5 and then at 111.20.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 110.10.0 and then at this week’s low of 110.03.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
EURO CURRENCY
The March Euro currency futures are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have lost their slight overall near-term technical advantage. A price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Tuesday’s high of 1.0897 and then at this week’s high of 1.0945. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0800 and then at 1.0750. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
January Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading, on tepid short covering after hitting a five-month low Wednesday. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $71.00 and then at $72.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $69.11 and then at $58.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were firmer overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Charts remain overall bearish for corn and wheat, but the recent rally in wheat markets suggest market bottoms are in place. Technicals are slightly bearish for soybeans and meal as those markets are now trending down on the daily bar chart. Seasonal studies are turning friendlier for the grains now that the U.S. harvest of corn and soybeans has ended.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff