Monday, March 11–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Asian and European stock markets were mixed in quieter overnight trading. U.S. stock index futures are set to open slightly lower when the New York day session begins and are not far below last week’s record highs as the bull run in the U.S. stock market rolls on.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the employment trends index. Arguably the U.S. data point of the week comes on Tuesday: the consumer price index report for February, seen coming in at up 3.7%, year-on-year, versus a rise of 3.9% seen in the January report.
STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading and are not far below Friday’s contract and record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 5,257.25 and then at 5,275.00. Support for active traders is seen at 5,150.00 and then at last week’s low of 5,124.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are just a bit weaker in early U.S. trading and not far below Friday’s contract high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 18,500.00 and then at the contract high of 18,691.25. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 18,075.00 and then at 18,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 122 13/32 and then at 123 even. Shorter-term support lies at Friday’s low of 121 2/32 and then at 120 9/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 112.00.0 and then at 112.10.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at Friday’s low of 111.08.0 and then at 111.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading after hitting a seven-week high Friday. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Friday’s high of 1.1026 and then at 1.1100. Shorter-term support is seen at Friday’s low of 1.0963 and then at 1.0900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
April Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $80.00 and then at the March high of $80.85. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $77.25 and then at $75.84. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were lower overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report. Charts remain bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. Corn, soybeans and HRW wheat have broken their near-term price downtrends on the daily charts. My bias is that market bottoms in the grains are not far off or in place now.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff