Asian and European stock markets were mostly weaker overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins, after setting record and contract highs Wednesday. Today is typically one of the lowest-volume days of the year for the U.S. stock market.
There is a bit of concern in the world marketplace late this week after President Trump late Wednesday signed a bill supporting Hong Kong’s anti-government protestors. Traders and investors are unsure how China is going to react, especially given that the U.S. and China had appeared very close to signing a partial trade deal. Such may still be the case, but maybe not, either.
In overnight news the Euro zone jobless rate came in at 7.5% in October versus 7.6% in September. The Euro zone consumer price index in November was up 1.0%, year-on-year, versus a reading of up 0.7% in October.
The key “outside markets” today see the U.S. dollar index slightly up. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $58.00 a barrel.
There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Friday and some financial and commodity markets close early due to the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading, on normal profit taking after hitting a record high Wednesday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 3,155.05 and then at 3,175.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at Tuesday’s low of 3,128.00 and then at this week’s low of 3,116.50. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading after hitting a record high Wednesday. Normal profit taking is featured. Bulls still have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 8,458.75 and then at 8,500.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 8,400.00 and then at Tuesday’s low of 8,366.25. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the November high of 160 4/32 and then at 160 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 158 31/32 and then at this week’s low of 158 23/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 129.10.0 and then at 129.05.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 129.20.0 and then at this week’s high of 129.26.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The March U.S. dollar index is slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 98.000 and then at 98.250. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 97.680 and then at 97.500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
January Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the November high of $58.74 and then at $59.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $57.64 and then at this week’s low of $57.21. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
US grain futures prices were closed overnight for the holiday and will close early today. The highlight of the holiday-shortened week will be today’s weekly USDA export sales report. US corn sales are seen at 400,000 to 900,000 metric tons (MT), US soybeans 600,000 to 1,200,000 MT and US wheat at 300,000 to 600,000 MT. There is a bit of concern among grain traders after President Trump late Wednesday signed a bill supporting Hong Kong’s anti-government protestors. Traders and investors are unsure how China is going to react, especially given that the U.S. and China had appeared very close to signing a partial trade deal. Such may still be the case, but maybe not, either. Weather in the US Corn Belt leans a bit bullish as winter storms have buffeted the region, with more wet weather this weekend–slowing harvest of what little crops are left in the fields.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff