Monday, December 27–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mostly weaker overnight in quieter, post-holiday trading. Some markets overseas remained closed for the Christmas holiday. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins.
Risk appetite is modestly upbeat to start the last week of 2021. There are still coronavirus worries, but there are also vaccines and drugs coming on line to battle the virus. One market analyst termed the marketplace’s present attitude regarding the coronavirus battle, “serious but manageable.”
Simmering on the back burner of the marketplace is a potential geopolitical crisis, as Russia’s troop buildup on the Ukrainian border has alarmed the U.S. and Europe.
The key “outside markets” today see Nymex crude oil prices lower and trading around $73.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is slightly up early today. Meantime, the yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 1.481%.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the Texas manufacturing outlook survey.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading and not far below the recent contract and record high. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,743.25 and then at 4,775.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at 4,684.25 and then at 4,650.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 16,457.00 and then at 16,500.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 16,145.25 and then at 16,000.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 161 even and then at 161 18/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at last week’s low of 160 11/32 and then at 160 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 130.19.5 and then at 130.26.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 130.10.0 and then at 130.7.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
EURO CURRENCY
The March Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. However, prices have been trading sideways at lower levels for nearly four weeks. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the December high of 1.1388 and then at 1.1417. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1300 and then at the December low of 1.1247. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $73.50 and then at the December high of $73.95. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $72.00 and then at $71.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures were higher in overnight trading. The grain market bulls have strength and prices may trend sideways to higher into the new year, and maybe longer. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff