Tuesday, June 21–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mixed to higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. U.S. markets were closed for the Juneteenth holiday on Monday. Trader and investor risk appetite has improved a bit on this first day of summer. Still, the U.S. stock indexes remain in price downtrends are not far above their recent bear-market lows. U.S. economic recession and inflation remain on traders’ and investors’ minds.
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have this week rebounded from their recent slides, with Bitcoin up about 20% from its for-the-move low reached last Saturday.
The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices solidly up and trading around $112.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is lower in early trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.275%. For perspective, the German 10-year bund is yielding 1.725% and the U.K. 10-year Gilt yield is at 2.593%.
U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the Chicago Fed national activity index and existing home sales.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher on short covering after hitting a contract low last week. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at of 3,800.00 and then at 3,843.00. Support for active traders is seen at 3,700.00 and then at the contract low of 3,639.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering after hitting a contract low last week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 11,794.25 and then at last week’s high of 11,811.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at overnight low of 11,273.75 and then at the contract low of 11,068.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears are in solid overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 135 even and then at last week’s high of 135 27/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 133 21/32 and then at 133 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears are in solid overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 116.12.0 and then at last week’s high of 116.25.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 115.22.5 and then at 115.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
EURO CURRENCY
The September Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.0668 and then at 1.0700. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0540 and then at 1.0500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
Nymex crude oil prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $113.00 and then at $114.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $110.00 and then at last week’s low of $108.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures prices were solidly lower in early U.S. pre-market trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage to suggest a sideways, trading-range grind into the key Fourth-of-July holiday period. Grain market bulls are hoping for a significant weather market in the coming weeks, but such is not yet in the cards.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff