Monday, January 23–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mixed but mostly up overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins.
In overnight news, a Wall Street Journal headline reads, “Fed sets milder course on rate increases.” Reporter Nick Timiraos said Fed officials are to slow interest rate increases at upcoming FOMC meetings and debate how much higher to raise them after gaining more confidence inflation will ease further this year. Timiraos is said to have an inside edge on getting high-level Fed officials to speak directly with him.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil futures prices are modestly higher and trading around $82.25 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.504%.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the leading economic indicators report.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,000.00 and then at the January high of 4,035.25. Support for active traders is seen at 3,950.00 and then at last week’s low of 3,901.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the January high of 11,759.50 and then at 12,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 11,500.00 and then at last week’s low of 11,308.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback after hitting a four-month high late last week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 130 24/32 and then at Friday’s high of 131 27/32. Shorter-term support lies at 130 even and then at 129 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback after hitting a four-month high late last week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 115.07.0 and then at 115.16.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 114.20.0 and then at 114.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
EURO CURRENCY
The March Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading and hit an eight-month high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0962 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at Friday’s low of 1.0838 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
March Nymex crude oil prices are modestly up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the January high of $82.66 and then at $83.14. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $80.00 and then at $78.45. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Prices were lower overnight. Recent risk aversion in the general marketplace is a bearish element for the grain markets. Corn and soybean market bulls have the near-term technical advantage. Wheat futures bears have the advantage. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff