Monday, April 10–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. It’s a calmer start to the trading week, following a three-day holiday weekend for most traders and investors. The U.S. Labor Department’s March jobs report issued Friday morning came in about as expected, showing a non-farm payrolls rise of 236,000 jobs versus a gain of 311,000 in the February report. Still, Friday’s jobs numbers fall into the camp of the U.S. monetary policy hawks, who want to see further interest rate increases from the Federal Reserve.
The U.S. data point of the week will be Wednesday morning’s consumer price index report for March, which is expected to show an annual rise of 5.1%, compared to a rise of 6.0% in the February report.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index near steady. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and trading around $81.00 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.383%.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the employment trends index and monthly wholesale trade.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,171.75 and then at 4,200.00. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 4,096.50 and then at 4,078.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 13,200.00 and then at last week’s high of 13,348.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 13,000.00 and then at last week’s low of 13,953.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 134 even and then at the contract high of 134 16/32. Shorter-term support lies at 132 16/32 and then at 132 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the contract high of 117.01.5 and then at 117.10.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 115.16.0 and then at 115.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1000 and then at last week’s high of 1.1019. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0900 and then at last week’s low of 1.0835. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
May Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in an uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of $81.81 and then at $83.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at last week’s low of $79.00 and then at $78.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report and the weekly USDA crop progress report. Soybean and corn market bulls have the chart advantage. Meantime, SRW wheat bears have the firm overall near-term chart advantage and HRW bulls have the slight chart edge amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff