Monday, July 31–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
In overnight news, Eurozone inflation eased in July, at up 5.3%, year-on-year, compared to a rise of 5.5% in June. The July reading was in line with market expectations.
The U.S. data point of the week is the U.S. employment situation report for July, which is out Friday morning. The key non-farm payrolls number is expected to come in at up 200,000 jobs, compared to a rise of 209,000 in the June report.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the Chicago ISM business survey and the Texas manufacturing outlook survey.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices hover near the high for the year. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the July high of 4,634.50 and then at 4,675.00. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 4,553.75 and then at 4,525.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 15,917.00 and then at the July high of 16,062.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 15,650.00 and then at last week’s low of 15,483.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Friday’s high of 124 21/32 and then at 125 even. Shorter-term support lies at last week’s low of 123 9/32 and then at the July low of 122 30/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Friday’s high of 111.21.0 and then at 112.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at last week’s low of 110.25.5 and then at 110.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
EURO CURRENCY
The September Euro currency futures are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1100 and then at 1.1150. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1031 and then at 1.1000. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
September Nymex crude oil prices are higher and hit a 3.5-month high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the April high of $81.44 and then at $82.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $80.13 and then at $78.29. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were solidly lower in overnight trading. Weather forecasts for the Midwest are not so bullish early this week. Cooler temps and better rainfall chances are expected the next several days. There is also talk that Ukraine grain may be able to be successfully shipped to the world through land routes in Europe. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections and weekly crop progress reports.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff