Monday, August 10–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mostly up in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Global traders and investors were somewhat assuaged by the weekend news that President Trump has tried to move unilaterally to provide more economic assistance to Americans, as the Congress has seen no progress on the matter. Whether Trump succeeds remains to be seen.
While the U.S. has recorded the lowest number of new Covid cases in nearly a week, some states are still seeing a rise in infections. There are also reports the five major college conferences are likely to cancel all sports for this fall. That could deal a psychological blow to many American traders and investors.
U.S.-China tensions remain high as the highest-ranking U.S. official in decades visited Taiwan over the weekend. Mainland China military jets reportedly flew over Taiwan’s air space. Mainland China claims Taiwan as its own province. Meantime, reports said two U.S. senators will be sanctioned by China in retaliation. This comes as top U.S. and China trade officials are set to meet on August 15.
The important outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices firmer and trading around $41.81 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is slightly higher on a corrective bounce after hitting a two-year low last week. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently around 0.55%.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the employment trends index.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and hit a 5.5-month high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a 4.5-month-old price uptrend in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 3,355.50 and then at 3,375.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at 3,325.00 and then at 3,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls remain in solid overall technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s record high of 11,283.25 and then at 11,400.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 11,035.25 and then at 11,000. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term chart advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 182 even and then at Friday’s high of 182 26/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 181 3/32 and then at 182 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Friday’s high of 140.09.0 and then at the contract high of 140.13. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 139.27.0 and then at 139.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
EURO CURRENCY
The September Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback after hitting a 16-month high last week. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1809 and then at 1.1850. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1706 and then at 1.1650. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
September Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Friday’s high of $42.22 and then at $43.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $41.00 and then at $40.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
US grain futures are steady to weaker in early U.S. pre-market trading. Bears remain in control amid non-threatening U.S. weather and good-looking corn and soybean crops in the U.S., as well as plentiful global wheat supplies. The big news event for the grain markets this week will be Wednesday’s monthly USDA supply and demand report. Trading is likely to be quieter ahead of that data.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff