Monday, May 14–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mixed in quieter trading overnight. European indexes were mostly weaker and Asian stocks were mostly higher. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward modestly higher openings when the New York day session begins.
Focus of the marketplace this week will be on U.S. trade meetings with China that begin in the U.S. Tuesday, and a possible U.S. decision on the NAFTA trade agreement with Mexico.
The key “outside markets” today find Nymex crude oil prices slightly lower and trading above $70.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is weaker on profit taking after hitting a 4.5-month high last week.
There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Monday.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly firmer and hit a seven-week high in early U.S. trading. The bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 2,741.00 and then at 2,750.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at Friday’s low of 2,716.25 and then at 2,700.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
June Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are firmer and hit a seven-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 7,000.00 and then at 7,050.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 6,957.75 and then at Friday’s low of 6,928.25. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 143 11/32 and then at Friday’s high of 143 21/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at last week’s low of 142 15/32 and then at 142 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading today. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 119.15.5 and then at 119.20.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at last week’s low of 119.06.0 and then at the contract low of 118.31.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The June U.S. dollar index is lower today on more profit taking after hitting a 4.5-month high last week. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 92.425 and then at Friday’s high of 92.710. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 92.170 and then at 92.000. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
June Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls are still in solid near-term technical control. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $71.00 and then at last week’s high of $71.89. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $70.00 and then at $69.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
Grain futures were mixed to weaker overnight. The bulls have faded recently, amid good planting progress in the U.S. Corn Belt. However, it’s a bit wet in the Corn Belt early this week, which could slow planting progress. Weather in the Corn Belt will be a major fundamental factor for the next three months.