Friday, April 20–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins. It’s been a quieter week on the news and geopolitical front. That has allowed the world stock markets to focus on their own corporate earnings reports.
(Hey, if you would like to read my e-book, “Sharpening Your Trading Skills,” just send me an email at jim@jimwyckoff.com and I’ll email it back to you, and it’s FREE.–Jim)
A feature in the marketplace this week has been rising world government bond yields, which suggests inflation is creeping up and that world economies are experiencing healthy economic growth.
The G-20 finance ministers meeting in Washington, D.C. begins Friday and last through the weekend.
The key “outside markets” on Friday morning see the U.S. dollar index trading higher. Nymex crude oil prices are higher. Prices Thursday hit a 3.5-year high, and are currently trading above $68.00 a barrel. Brent crude oil pushed above $74.00 on Thursday. Oil traders are awaiting the conclusion of an OPEC meeting that is taking place today in Saudi Arabia. Oil ministers from OPEC and Russia are expected to continue to implement their production-cut quotas.
There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Friday.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 December e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The bulls have had the better week, so far. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 2,718.50 and then at 2,735.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at this week’s low of 2,660.75 and then at 2,650.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
June Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are slightly weaker on profit taking. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen 6,800.00 and then at this week’s high of 6,867.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 6,733.75 and then at 6,700.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower. Prices Thursday hit a four-week low and bulls are fading this week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 144 even and then at 144 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 143 12/32 and then at 143 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Prices Thursday hit a four-week low and bears are in firm control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 120.00.0 and then at Thursday’s high of 120.06.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 119.23.0 and then at 119.19.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The June U.S. dollar index is higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 90.000 and then at the April high of 90.295. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 89.640 and then at Thursday’s low of 89.235. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
June Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls are still in solid near-term technical control. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $68.66 and then at $69.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $67.50 and then at $67.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Grain futures were lower overnight. The cold, wet and snowy weather seen in the U.S. Midwest the past several weeks has finally ended. Farmers will be in their fields next week, planting corn and preparing for soybean planting. There is also some rain forecast for dry portions of U.S. HRW wheat country. All of the above is bearish for the grains.