Monday, November 14–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are headed for weaker openings when the New York day session begins, on corrective pullbacks from recent strong gains. The S&P 500 stock index on Friday hit a two-month high and the Nasdaq index notched a six-week high. The S&P 500 is trending higher on the daily bar chart, to suggest that a market bottom is in place and that prices can continue to work sideways to higher in the near term.
Traders early this week will keep an eye on the Group of 20 meeting taking place in Bali. U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese Premiere Xi Jinping are scheduled to meet at the confab. China’s government over the weekend took more stimulative measures to reinvigorate its listing property sector. China has also taken steps recently to ease up on its Covid restrictions that continue to hamper the world’s second-largest economy.
The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices weaker and trading around $88.25 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is sharply higher on a corrective bounce after hitting a nearly three-month low on Friday. The benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching 3.891%.
There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Monday. The pace picks up quickly Tuesday, including the release of the producer price index report for October, which is seen coming in at up 0.4% from September and compares to the rise of 0.4% in the September PPI report.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading, on a mild corrective pullback after hitting a two-month high on Friday. Bulls have gained the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,009.75 and then at 4,050.00. Support for active traders is seen at Friday’s low of 3,951.00 and then at 3,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading on a corrective pullback after hitting a six-week high on Friday. Bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 11,876.75 and then at 12,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Friday’s low of 11,569.25 and then at 11,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback from last week’s strong gains. A three-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 124 10/32 and then at 125 even. Shorter-term support lies at 122 even and then at 121 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback from strong gains posted last week. A three-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 112.06.5 and then at last week’s high of 112.19.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 111.16.0 and then at 111.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
EURO CURRENCY
The December Euro currency futures are solidly lower in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback after hitting a three-month high last Friday. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.0391 and then at 1.0465. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0250 and then at Friday’s low of 1.0189. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
December Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field amid choppy trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $90.00 and then at $92.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $87.50 and then at last week’s low of $84.70. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures were mostly lower in overnight trading. Bearish outside markets including a sharp rebound in the U.S. dollar index, lower crude oil prices and lower U.S. stock indexes are negatives for the grains today. Corn bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Soybeans bulls have the slight chart edge. Wheat bears have the near-term technical advantage. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report on the weekly USDA crop progress reports.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff