Tuesday, May 7–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Risk appetite has receded a bit Tuesday after Israel said it had taken control of part of the southern city of Rafah in the Gaza strip near the Egyptian border. The stepped-up Israeli military operations in Gaza come as there had been better hopes a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas might be imminent.
In overnight news, Australia’s central bank left its monetary policy unchanged at its regular meeting. The RBA said that while inflation is easing, it’s easing more slowly than expected and it will be some time before inflation is in the RBA’s target zone.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly down and trading around $78.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 4.465%.
U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report, the RCM/TIPP economic optimism index and consumer credit.
STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading but hit a three-week high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 5,230.00 and then at 5,250.00. Support for active traders is seen at Monday’s low of 5,155.75 and then at 5,125.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 18,300.00 and then at 18,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 17,983.75 and then at 17,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 117 even and then at 118 even. Shorter-term support lies at Monday’s low of 115 23/32 and then at 115 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 109.09.5 and then at 109.16.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at Monday’s low of 108.23.0 and then at 108.16.0. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are slightly down in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.0832 and then at 1.0880. Shorter-term support is seen at last Friday’s low of 1.0744 and then at 1.0700. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
June Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $80.00 and then at $81.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Monday’s low of $77.91 and then at $77.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were weaker overnight, on routine corrective pullbacks from recent good gains. Corn, HRW and SRW wheat, soybeans and soybean meal are all trending higher on the daily bar charts. Seasonal price tendencies are presently favoring the grain market bulls.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff