Friday, September 22–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
The United Auto Workers union strike in the U.S. is also starting to impact businesses nationwide and that’s also dampening trader and investor risk appetite.
In overnight news, the Bank of Japan kept its monetary policy unchanged, keeping it ultra loose. The key deposit rate was kept at -0.1%. The BOJ kept its 10-year bond yield cap at 1.0%. The Japanese yen continues to weaken against the U.S. dollar, which is beginning to worry the marketplace a bit.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher and hitting a 6.5-month high. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $90.75 a barrel. The benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently at a multi-year high and fetching 4.478%–the highest since 2007.
U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the U.S. flash manufacturing and services PMIs.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading after hitting a 3.5-month low overnight. Bulls are fading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Thursday’s high of 4,447.00 and then at Wednesday’s high of 4,508.00. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 4,366.00 and then at 4,325.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are up and hit a four-week low in overnight trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 15,000.00 and then at Thursday’s high of 15,149.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 14,836.25 and then at the August low of 14,792.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker and hit another contract low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 117 even and then at Thursday’s high of 117 28/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight contract low of 115 23/32 and then at 115 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading after hitting a contract low Thursday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Thursday’s high of 108.25.5 and then at 109.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the contract low of 108.08.0 and then at 108.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
EURO CURRENCY
The December Euro currency futures are lower and hit another 10-month low in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending lower and bears are in solid near-term technical control. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0706 and then at this week’s high of 1.0778. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0650 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
November Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are still bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $91.07 and then at this week’s high of $92.43. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $88.37 and then at $87.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mixed to firmer in overnight trading. Harvest pressure in soybeans and corn is moving into full swing. That is a bearish seasonal factor due to commercial hedge pressure as farmers take their crops to the local elevators. Technicals are overall fully bearish for corn and wheat, and moderately bearish for soybeans and meal.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff