Risk appetite still dented as U.S. government shutdown looms

Thursday, September 28–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report

Asian and European stocks were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Risk appetite remains dented as the U.S. government shutdown this weekend looms. The Associated Press reports: “As the Senate marches ahead with a bipartisan approach to prevent a government shutdown, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy is back to square one — asking his hard-right Republicans to do what they have said they would never do: approve their own temporary House measure to keep the government open.” Goldman Sachs reportedly estimates the shutdown will probably last three weeks.

A Barron’s headline today reads: “Forget the shutdown. Why stocks have plenty more to worry about.” The story goes on to say the main reason for recent stock market declines is changing perceptions about interest rates. Now the thinking in much of the marketplace is higher for longer, maybe much longer, including potential stagflation, as pointed out by JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon in the press recently.

Striking union workers in the U.S., led by the United Auto Workers, are also starting to weigh more heavily on trader and investor sentiment.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker after hitting a 10-month high on Wednesday. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $93.25 a barrel. A Dow Jones Newswires headline today reads: “Saudi Arabia and Russia win big in gamble on oil production cuts.”

Meantime, the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is at a 16-year high this week and presently fetching 4.647%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the third estimate of second-quarter GDP, revised corporate profits, pending home sales and the Kansas City Federal Reserve manufacturing survey.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading as prices are in a two-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart and hit a four-month low Wednesday. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,350.00 and then at this week’s high of 4,383.50. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,277.00 and then at 4,250.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of 14,821.50 and then at this week’s high of 14,955.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 14,586.00 and then at 14,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower and hit another contract low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 115 even and then at 115 23/32. Shorter-term support lies at the contract low of 112 31/32 and then at 112 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker and hit a contract low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 108.00.0 and then at 108.16.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the contract low of 107.15.0 and then at 107.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

EURO CURRENCY

The December Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading on short covering after hitting a 10-month low Wednesday. Prices are trending lower and bears are in solid near-term technical control. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Wednesday’s high of 1.0611 and then at this week’s high of 1.0693. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0525 and then at 1.0500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

November Nymex crude oil prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading after hitting a 13-month high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $95.03 and then at $96.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Wednesday’s low of $90.40 and then at this week’s low of $88.18. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were weaker in overnight trading. The keener risk aversion in the marketplace this week is limiting buying interest in the grain futures. Harvest pressure in soybeans and corn is in full swing. That is also a bearish seasonal factor due to commercial hedge pressure. Technicals remain fully bearish for corn and wheat, and moderately bearish for soybeans and meal. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report and on Friday comes the quarterly grain stocks report from USDA.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff