Thursday, April 6–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Risk appetite this week has down-ticked. Reads a Wall Street Journal headline today: “Bank failures; high inflation; rising rates. Is the resilient jobs market about to crack?”
In overnight news, reports said that as the price of gold is back above $2,000 an ounce the countries of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa all plan to increase their gold reserves. This is due to “an increasingly bipolar geopolitical world—exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, says an ING analyst. He added such is a “structural positive for gold and structural negative for the U.S. dollar.”
The U.S. data point of the week is Friday’s U.S. employment situation report for March from the Labor Department. The key non-farm payrolls number is seen coming in at up 238,000, compared to a rise of 311,000 in the February report. The U.S. markets will have to wait until Monday to react to the data, as they are closed on Friday for the Easter holiday.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly up after hitting a two-month low Tuesday. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $80.50 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.292% and has fallen this week.
U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Challenger job-cuts report, the global services PMI and monthly retail chain store sales.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,171.75 and then at 4,200.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,100.00 and then at 4,078.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 13,200.00 and then at this week’s high of 13,348.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 12,900.00 and then at 12,800.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading after hitting a 2.5-month high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 134 8/32 and then at the contract high of 134 16/32. Shorter-term support lies at Wednesday’s low of 132 24/32 and then at 132 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the contract high of 117.01.5 and then at 117.10.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 116.11.0 and then at 116.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1000 and then at this week’s high of 1.1019. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0900 and then at this week’s low of 1.0835. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
May Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in an uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $81.81 and then at $83.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $79.00 and then at $78.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Keener risk aversion in the general marketplace at mid-week is hurting the grain market bulls. Soybean and corn market bulls still have the chart advantage. Meantime, SRW wheat bears have the firm overall near-term chart advantage and HRW bulls have the chart edge amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff