Tuesday, March 6–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mostly higher overnight, partly on some hopes that the U.S. plans for import tariffs on steel and aluminum will be rolled back, or at least scaled way down. Several U.S. lawmakers, including the Speaker of the House, have spoken out against President Trump’s protectionist initiative that surprised the marketplace.
Also boosting investor risk appetite today is news overnight that North Korea has reportedly made an overture to South Korea regarding its possible denuclearization. Details are sketchy at this time, but the news is a positive for the world marketplace.
U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins.
The key outside markets on Tuesday morning see the U.S. dollar index lower. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading just below $63.00 a barrel.
U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, manufacturers’ shipments and inventories, and the IBD/TIPP economic optimism index.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
March S&P 500 December e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 2,750.00 and then at 2,765.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at the overnight low of 2,716.00 and then at 2,700.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
March Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 6,950.00 and then at 6,975.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 6,900.00 and then at the overnight low of 6,877.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 143 12/32 and then at 144 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at Monday’s low of 142 21/32 and then at 142 10/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 120.05.0 and then at 120.10.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 119.24.0 and then at 119.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The June U.S. dollar index is lower in early U.S. trading today. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are neutral as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 89.610 and then at 90.000. Shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 89.235 and then at 89.000. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
April Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls are making a comeback again. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $63.00 and then at $63.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $62.00 and then at Monday’s low of $61.10. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Grain futures were steady to weaker overnight. Some profit taking is seen after recent strong gains. Bulls still have the near-term technical advantage amid price uptrends. The big news this week will be Thursday’s USDA supply and demand report.