Friday, August 13–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mixed overnight, with European shares mostly up and Asian shares mostly down. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed to slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins and are at or near their record highs. Risk aversion remains low this summer. Good corporate earnings reports the past few weeks have kept trader and investor attitudes upbeat. However, storm clouds are on the horizon. Bloomberg reports fears are increasing that the spread of the delta variant may lead to a repeat of last year’s shipping bottlenecks. The partial closure of the world’s third-busiest container port Thursday (Los Angeles) is putting pressure on already-strained supply chains ahead of the key shopping season. Bloomberg said the hub of Los Angeles is already bracing for another potential decline of traffic from China. The resulting delays could add to the price of container shipping, which is already up more than 220% this year.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil futures prices are a bit weaker and trading around $69.00 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 1.342%.
U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes import and export prices and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading and poked to another contract and record high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,459.75 and then at 4,475.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,412.25 and then at last week’s low of 4,365.25. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid chart advantage. Prices last week hit a contract and record high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 15,172.50 and then at 15,250.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 14,941.25 and then at the August low of 14,849.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. A three-month-old price uptrend on the daily chart is still in serious jeopardy. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 163 28/32 and then at this week’s high of 164 18/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 162 17/32 and then at 162 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are up in early U.S. trading. A three-month-old price uptrend on the daily bar chart is still in serious jeopardy. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Wednesday’s high of 133.29.0 and then at this week’s high of 134.06.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 133.09.5 and then at 133.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
EURO CURRENCY
The September Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1777 and then at 1.1800. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1713 and then at 1.1700. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $69.62 and then at $70.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $68.00 and then at $67.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures were higher overnight on follow-through strength from Thursday’s gains that came in the wake of a generally bullish USDA supply and demand report. The wheat market bulls are in firm technical control, corn bulls have the firm chart advantage after big gains Thursday, and the soybean bulls have gained the slight overall near-term technical advantage.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff