Monday, June 18–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mostly weaker overnight. China and Hong Kong markets were closed today for a holiday. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. Traders are in a risk-averse mood to start the trading week. World trade war concerns continue to be on the front burner of the marketplace, as the world’s two largest economies—the U.S. and China—square off.
The key “outside markets” today find the U.S. dollar index firmer and not far below last week’s 11-month high. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are modestly lower, hit a two-week low overnight and are trading around $64.50 a barrel.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the NAHB housing market index.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading, on more profit taking after hitting a three-month high last week. The bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 2,786.75 and then at last week’s high of 2,796.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at last week’s low of 2,765.50 and then at 2,750.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
September Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are lower on more profit taking after hitting a contract high last week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 2,789.25 and then at the contract high of 7,321.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 7,224.50 and then at 7,200.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading, on more short covering. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 144 10/32 and then at 144 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at Friday’s low of 143 12/32 and then at 143 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading, on more short covering. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 119.27.5 and then at 120.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at Friday’s low of 119.14.5 and then at 119.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The September U.S. dollar index is slightly up and not far below last week’s a contract high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are neutral to bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the contract high of 94.820 and then at 95.000. Shorter-term support is seen at 94.310 and then at 94.000. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
July Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and hit a nine-week low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $65.00 and then at $66.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $64.00 and then at the overnight low of $63.59. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
Grain futures were mixed to lower overnight on continuing U.S. ag trade worries and good growing weather in the U.S. Corn Belt. It’s my bias the corn and soybean markets have put in, or are very close to putting in, market bottoms.