Monday, February 5–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Asian and European stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. U.S. stock index futures are set to open slightly lower when the New York day session begins.
Risk aversion is elevated to start the trading week, following weekend U.S. and U.K. air strikes on Houthi rebel bases in Syria and Iraq, which were followed by at least six Kurdish fighters being killed in a drone attack on a Syrian base housing U.S. troops.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the U.S. services purchasing managers’ index (PMI), the ISM report on business services, the global services PMI and the employment trends index.
STOCK INDEXES
March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading after hitting a contract and record high Friday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract and record high of 4,997.75 and then at 5,050.00. Support for active traders is seen at Friday’s low of 4,963.75 and then at 4,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract and record high of 17,793.50 and then at 17,900.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Friday’s low of 17,465.50 and then at 17,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 121 31/32 and then at 123 even. Shorter-term support lies at 120 even and then at the January low of 119 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 111.21.5 and then at 112.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 111.00.0 and then at the January low of 110.26.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
EURO CURRENCY
The March Euro currency futures are lower and hit a four-week low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0804 and then at 1.0650. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0750 and then at 1.0700. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
March Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower and hit a three-week low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $73.00 and then at $74.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $71.00 and then at $70.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were weaker overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report. Charts are still fully bearish for corn and wheat. Technicals are also bearish for soybeans, meal and soybean oil. All the grain markets are trending down on the daily bar charts. That means the path of least resistance for their prices remains sideways to lower.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff