Wednesday, March 15–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Global stock markets were mixed overnight, with Asian shares mostly up and European shares solidly down. European banking stocks are taking a big hit today, led by Credit Suisse and worries about its financial health. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward solidly lower openings when the New York day session begins. Risk aversion is again elevated at mid-week as the banking turmoil that started in the U.S. is spreading in Europe. Falling U.S. Treasury yields and a firmer U.S. dollar index are indicative of traders and investors who are stressed and wanting to hold those safe-haven assets. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.534%.
The European Central Bank meets Thursday and was expected to raise its main interest rate by 50 basis points. However, the shaky banking sector in the Euro zone at present may at the last minute alter the ECB’s plans. The Federal Reserve’s FOMC meets next week and there is a hot debate in the marketplace regarding whether the Fed will raise its main interest rate by 25 basis points, or stand pat amid the U.S. banking crisis.
The data point of a very busy U.S. economic report day Wednesday is the producer price index report for February. PPI is seen coming in up 0.3% from January, following a 0.7% rise in January from the December report. Tuesday’s U.S. consumer price index report came out right in line with market expectations.
In overnight news, China’s economy rebounded the first two months of the year, as the world’s second-largest economy moved away from Covid restrictions of the past three years. Retail sales in January and February were up 3.5% from the same period a year ago. Industrial production was up 2.4% in the same periods. China’s exports were down 6.8% in the same periods.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Nymex crude oil futures prices are slightly up and trading around $71.50 a barrel.
U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the Empire State manufacturing survey, retail sales, the producer price index, the NAHB housing market index, manufacturing and trade inventories, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report and Treasury international capital data.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are sharply lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 3,972.50 and then at 4,000.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 3,839.25 and then at the December low of 3,822.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 3.5
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are sharply down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is even with the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 12,374.25 and then at 12,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 12,000.00 and then at this week’s low of 11,806.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are sharply higher on safe-haven demand. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 132 4/32 and then at this week’s high of 132 30/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 129 1/32 and then at this week’s low of 128 7/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 115.00.0 and then at this week’s high of 115.13.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 113.08.5 and then at 113.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0822 and then at 1.0900. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0640 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 3.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
April Nymex crude oil prices are lower and hit a three-month low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $72.56 and then at $74.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $70.00 and then at $69.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mixed but mostly mostly lower overnight. Risk aversion at mid-week is again elevated and is limiting buying interest in grains. Soybean market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Corn and wheat bears have the firm overall chart advantage.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff