Friday, June 8–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins.
There is some uncertainty and even some anxiety among traders and investors heading into this weekend’s Group of Seven meeting in Canada between the major industrialized countries of the world. Trade and import tariffs will likely be the major topic of discussion among the finance ministers of the major world economies. The tone among the world leaders attending the meeting is not good, regarding resolving trade the disputes.
And then early next week President Trump is scheduled to meet with North Korean President Kim Jong Un. The results of this meeting are very much up in the air and hard for the markets to gauge. This adds another element of uncertainty heading into the weekend, to put the marketplace is a more risk-averse mood today.
The key “outside markets” today find Nymex crude oil prices weaker and trading above $65.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is higher today on a rebound from this week’s losses and a bit of safe-haven demand.
U.S. economic data due for release Friday is light and includes the monthly wholesale trade report.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower on profit taking after hitting a 2.5-month high on Thursday. The bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 2,783.50 and then at 2,800.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at 2,750.00 and then at this week’s low of 2,733.25. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
September Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are lower on profit taking after hitting a contract high on Thursday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 7,150.00 and then at the overnight high of 7,185.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 7,101.50 and then at 7,075.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading, on short covering and a corrective bounce from recent losses. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 144 6/32 and then at 144 19/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 143 1/32 and then at 141 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on some short covering and a corrective bounce. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 120.00.5 and then at 120.08.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 119.20.0 and then at the overnight low of 119.14.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The September U.S. dollar index is higher in early U.S. trading, on a rebound from this week’s selling pressure. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and need to show some power. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 93.500 and then at this week’s high of 93.860. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 92.960 and then at this week’s low of 92.760. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
July Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Recent technical damage inflicted still suggests more downside pressure in the near term. The shorter-term moving averages are still bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9- and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $66.19 and then at $67.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $65.00 and then at this week’s low of $64.22. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
Grain futures were lower overnight. Corn and soybean bulls have faded badly this week, to suggest more price pressure is coming. And with corn and bean bulls on the ropes, wheat won’t make any upside headway, either. Good growing weather in the U.S. Corn Belt at present and trade war worries are bearish for the grains.