Thursday, February 17–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mixed to weaker overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins. Risk aversion is keener Thursday on reports that shots have been fired along the Ukraine-Russia border. Reports said Ukrainian troops fired on Russian-backed rebels. Also, the U.S. says there is no evidence Russia has pulled its troops away from the border, and in fact the U.S. says Russia has added 7,000 more troops.
Gold prices surged to an eight-month high overnight on safe-haven demand amid the geopolitical crisis.
The marketplace took some note of the FOMC minutes that were released Wednesday afternoon. The U.S. stocks market was somewhat assuaged as the minutes did not seem as hawkish as some market watchers expected. However, others said the minutes contained no surprises.
The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 2.014%. The key outside markets today see crude oil prices solidly lower and trading around $91.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is a bit firmer today.
U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Philadelphia Fed business survey, and new residential construction. Several Federal Reserve officials are also scheduled to give speeches today.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,484.50 and then at 4,525.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,400.00 and then at this week’s low of 4,354.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 14,668.50 and then at 14,800.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 14,233.25 and then at this week’s low of 14,031.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are up in early U.S. trading, on short covering after hitting a contract low on Wednesday. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 152 9/32 and then at 153 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 150 29/32 and then at the contract low of 150 12/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 126.15.5 and then at this week’s high of 126.25.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 125.25.0 and then at the contract low of 125.17.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
EURO CURRENCY
The March Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1402 and then at 1.1450. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1328 and then at this week’s low of 1.1287. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
March Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the strong overall near-term technical advantage amid a 10-week-old price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $93.32 and then at $95.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $90.00 and then at $89.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures are mixed to firmer in early U.S. pre-market trading. Grain market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The keener inflation worries are overall bullish for the grain markets, but the keener risk aversion this week is mostly bearish.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff