Tuesday, December 28–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward modestly higher openings when the New York day session begins, and are at or near their record highs. Traders and investors continue to exhibit general “risk-on” attitudes that are bullish for the stock markets. The Omicron strain of the coronavirus is proving to produce less serious illness than the other strains, while new vaccines and therapeutics are rolling out to battle the virus. “Serious but manageable” appears to be how the marketplace is viewing the matter. The U.S. Center for Disease Control has just cut in half the quarantine time for those exposed to the virus.
The key “outside markets” today see Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading around $76.85 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is slightly up early today. Meantime, the yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 1.472%.
U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store sales reports, the monthly house price index, the S&P Case-Shiller home price indexes, and the Richmond Fed business survey.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and hit a contract and record high overnight. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,797.25 and then at 4,825.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at Monday’s low of 4,713.25 and then at 4,684.25. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and near the record high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the record high of 16,768.00 and then at 16,900.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 16,500.00 and then at Monday’s low of 16,304.25. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 161 even and then at 161 18/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at last week’s low of 160 11/32 and then at 160 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 130.21.5 and then at 130.26.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at Monday’s low of 130.13.0 and then at 130.7.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
EURO CURRENCY
The March Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. However, prices have been trading sideways at lower levels for nearly four weeks. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the December high of 1.1388 and then at 1.1417. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1300 and then at the December low of 1.1247. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
Nymex crude oil prices are higher and hit a four-week high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $77.50 and then at $78.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $75.53 and then at $75.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures were mixed in overnight trading. Corn and soybean bulls have good technical power, while wheat lags. The speculative shorts (sellers) in the grain futures have now likely been mostly squeezed out of their positions over the past couple weeks of price gains. New speculative longs (buyers) have now entered the markets, especially in corn and soybeans. Grain market bulls now need to beware the rest of this week: The bigger fund traders may try to press the new and weaker long traders out of the market by taking profits on their better-established long positions, amid the thin holiday trading conditions this week.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff