Friday, February 10–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins. Market analyst Craig Erlam of OANDA said today in an email dispatch: “Equity markets are ending the week on a flat or slightly downbeat note, which has largely reflected the mood all week, really. Central bankers, particularly from the Fed, have been out in force stressing caution over interest rate expectations. And it’s clearly had an impact following that red-hot U.S. jobs report last week. Markets are now pricing in two more hikes from the Fed and possibly one cut later in the year.” A headline in a Barron’s report today reads, “The recession has gone missing.”
In overnight news, reports said Russia plans on cutting its oil production by 500,000 barrels per day, or about 5%, starting in March, in response to Western sanctions. Oil prices rallied on the news. Oil prices are also being supported on notions of stronger economic growth in China this year. Nymex crude oil futures prices are solidly up and trading around $80.00 a barrel.
The key outside markets see the U.S. dollar index firmer. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.705%. Treasury yields have climbed following last week’s stronger U.S. jobs report.
U.S. economic data due for release Friday is light and includes the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey and the monthly Treasury budget statement.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading and headed for a technically bearish weekly low close. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart, but the uptrend is now in jeopardy. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,098.25 and then at 4,150.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,050.00 and then at 4,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the near-term chart advantage as prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. However, that price uptrend is now in some jeopardy. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 12,451.50 and then at Thursday’s high of 12,728.50. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 12,200.00 and then at 12,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower and hit a four-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 128 3/32 and then at 129 even. Shorter-term support lies at 127 even and then at 126 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and hit a four-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 113.07.0 and then at Friday’s high of 113.26.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 112.25.0 and then at 112.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
EURO CURRENCY
The March Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0822 and then at 1.0900. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0691 and then at 1.0650. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
March Nymex crude oil prices are solidly up and hit a two-week high in early U.S. trading. Bulls and bears are back on a level overall near-term technical playing field but the bulls have momentum on their side. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $80.33 and then at $81.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $78.00 and then at Thursday’s low of $76.52. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mixed but mostly firmer overnight. Not much new recently. Corn and soybean market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat futures bears have the overall chart advantage but there are now technical clues the wheat markets have bottomed out.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff