Tuesday, January 17–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
In overnight/weekend news, China got more downbeat economic data, as Covid continues to punish the world’s second-largest economy. China’s economic growth slowed to 3% in 2022 from 8.1% in 2021, official data said Tuesday. Except for the pandemic year of 2020, that’s the worst annual economic growth rate for China since 1976. The dour China news has traders and investors more risk averse to start this holiday-shortened U.S. trading week.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index modestly higher. Nymex crude oil futures prices are slightly higher and trading around $80.00 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching around 3.549%.
U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday is light and includes the Empire State manufacturing survey.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading but did hit a four-week high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 4,028.25 and then at 4,050.00. Support for active traders is seen at last Friday’s low of 3,961.75 and then at 3,925.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading but hit a four-week high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 11,638.75 and then at 11,800.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last Friday’s low of 11,389.00 and then at 11,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback after hitting a three-week high Friday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 130 4/32 and then at 131 even. Shorter-term support lies at 129 even and then at 128 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower on a corrective pullback after hitting a four-month high last Friday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 114.29.5 and then at 115.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 114.10.0 and then at 114.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
EURO CURRENCY
The March Euro currency futures are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading but hit an eight-month high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0916 and then at 1.0950. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0758 and then at last week’s low of 1.0689. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
February Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the January high of $81.50 and then at $83.00 Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $78.53 and then at $77.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Prices were lower overnight. Corn and soybean market bulls have the near-term technical advantage. Wheat futures bears have the advantage. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff