Monday, April 12–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins, on a routine corrective pullback from recent gains that put the indexes at record highs last week.
Markets are not paying much attention to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments on the “60 Minutes” TV show Sunday evening, in which has reiterated the U.S. central bank will continue to support the economy until its fully recovered from the pandemic. He said it will “be a while” before the Fed raises interest rates.
Middle East tensions have up-ticked early this week on reports that a major uranium-enrichment facility in Iran was hit by a damaging cyberattack, likely coming from Israel. Major damage was reported.
In another sign of rising and possibly problematic price inflation from the world’s major economies, reports say China is considering implementing price controls due to rising commodity prices. Reports also say China’s central bank wants to tighten lending standards.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly down. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $60.00 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching around 1.65%.
There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Monday but the pace picks up Tuesday, including the consumer price index report for March.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading and not far below last week’s contract and record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the record high of 4,121.50 and then at 4,150.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at Friday’s low of 4,081.00 and then at 4,050.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading after hitting a seven-week high Friday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 13,841.75 and then at the record high of 13,888.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Friday’s low of 13,648.25 and then at 13,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading today. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, recent sideways price action at lower levels may be “basing” that puts in a market bottom. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 157 4/32 and then at 157 8/32. Shorter-term support lies at 156 even and then at last week’s low of 155 6/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 132.03.0 and then at 132.09.5. Shorter-term technical support lies at 131.15.0 and then at 131.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.1943 and then at 1.1975. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1886 and then at 1.1850. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
May Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but trading has been choppy and sideways. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $61.00 and then at $62.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $57.73 and then at the March low of $57.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures are mixed to weaker in early U.S. pre-market trading. Corn and soybean bulls are in solid technical command. Wheat bulls have bounced back a bit and wheat will remain a follower. Weather in the U.S. midsection will be market-sensitive in the coming weeks as corn planters start to roll. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff