Wednesday, November 17–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed to mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Focus for U.S. equities traders remains on corporate earnings, which have been upbeat. Also, holiday spending is under way and that has businesses and investors in good moods. Still, markets are pausing due to inflation worries and concerns about rising Covid-19 cases in Asia and Europe.
In overnight news, the Euro zone October consumer price index was reported up 0.8% from September and up 4.1%, year-on-year. Meantime, The U.K. reported its consumer inflation rate at up 4.2% in October, year-on-year, for the biggest rise in a decade. Those numbers are around twice as hot as the European Central Bank and Bank of England say they would like to see.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer and hitting another 15-month high overnight. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $79.75 a barrel. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 1.628%.
U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, new residential construction and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading but not far below this month’s record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending up. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract and record high of 4,711.25 and then at 4,725.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,667.00 and then at last week’s low of 4,625.25. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 16,448.50 and the at 16,500.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 16,092.25 and then at 16,000.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 160 23/32 and then at 161 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 159 20/32 and then at 159 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading and hit a four-week low overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 130.17.0 and then at this week’s high of 130.27.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the October low of 129.31.0 and then at 129.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
EURO CURRENCY
The December Euro currency futures are slightly higher in early U.S. trading and hit another 16-month low overnight. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1400 and then at this week’s high of 1.1469. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1268 and then at 1.1250. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded recently to suggest a market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $81.81 and then at $83.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $79.30 and then at the November low of $78.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures were mixed to firmer overnight. The soybean meal futures market is trending solidly higher, which signals a market bottom is in place for soybeans. Corn and wheat bulls have the near-term technical advantage amid price uptrends in place on the daily charts. Corn is presently following the lead of the stronger wheat market.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff