Thursday, March 11–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. China’s Shanghai composite index saw its biggest one-day advance since October. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. Traders and investors are in “risk-on” moods late this week after the U.S. Congress approved a $1.9 trillion stimulus package for Americans that will be signed by President Biden Friday. Also, Covid vaccinations continue to rise in the U.S., with health experts saying that all Americans who want a shot can likely get one by the end of April.
U.S. Treasury bond yields appear to have stabilized late this week. The closely watched U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is fetching 1.499% in early U.S. trading Thursday. Bond yields have been rising in recent weeks on worries about problematic inflation surfacing as the major economies of the world have turned on their money spigots wide open over the past year. Still, inflation readings from the major economies are so far not running hot.
Traders in Europe were awaiting the results of the latest meeting of the European Central Bank Thursday. No changes in EU monetary policy are expected.
The key “outside markets” today see Nymex crude oil futures prices higher and trading around $65.20 a barrel. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is lower early today.
U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, expected to show new claims at 725,000 compared to 745,000 in new claims reported last week.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and closing in on the record high scored in February. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 3,924.50 and then at the record high of 3,947.75. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 3,883.25 and then at Wednesday’s low of 3,847.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have momentum again. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 13,004.25 and then at 13,100.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 12,800.00 and then at the overnight low of 12,715.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 158 28/32 and then at 159 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 157 24/32 and then at 157 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 133.00.5 and then at 133.08.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 132.14.0 and then at Wednesday’s low of 132.04.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.2000 and then at 1.2050. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1939 and then at 1.1900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
April Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $65.63 and then at $66.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $63.13 and then at $62.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures are mixed in early U.S. pre-market trading, on profit taking and chart consolidation. It could be that markets will pause and remain choppy and sideways up until the March 31 USDA planting intentions and quarterly grains stocks reports. Grain market bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage as prices are still mostly trending up—both on a near-term and longer-term basis. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff