Thursday, April 8–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward modestly higher openings when the New York day session begins. The Dow and S&P 500 indexes have hit record highs this week. Traders and investors continue to exhibit a little risk aversion and that is boosting the equity markets.
The Wednesday afternoon release of the minutes of the last Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that took place in March showed no surprises and the takeaway was that the Fed will keep its monetary policy very accommodative for some time to come. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak Thursday at midday at an International Monetary Fund event.
There was civil unrest and rioting in Northern Ireland Thursday, which the marketplace will continue to monitor. Many believe the situation could get worse as the U.K. tries to figure out what to do with the rules of the region, post-Brexit.
In other overnight news, the Euro zone producer price index rose 0.5% in February from January and was up 1.5%, year-on-year.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker as the greenback bulls are fading this week. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $59.30 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching around 1.646%.
U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report and monthly chain store sales.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are up in early U.S. trading and hit another contract and record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight record high of 4,092.75 and then at 4,100.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,021.00 and then at 4,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and hit a six-week high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 13,800.00 and then at the record high of 13,888.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 13,615.50 and then at 13,512.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading today. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 157 2/32 and then at 157 8/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 155 30/32 and then at this week’s low of 155 6/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 131.30.5 and then at 132.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 131.21.0 and then at 131.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
The June Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls are having a very good week to begin to suggest a near-term market bottom is in place. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1931 and then at 1.1975. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1850 and then at 1.1811. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
May Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but trading has been choppy and sideways. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Tuesday’s high of $60.90 and then at $62.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $57.63 and then at the March low of $57.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
U.S. grain futures are again mixed in early U.S. pre-market trading. Corn and soybean bulls are still in technical command. Wheat bulls have faded and wheat remains a follower. Focus of grain traders is on this morning’s weekly USDA export sales report, on U.S. Corn Belt weather conditions and early planting progress, and on Friday’s monthly USDA supply and demand report.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.