Wednesday, March 30–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stocks markets were mixed but mostly higher overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins. Traders and investors continue to assess three major factors that have been impacting most markets: the Russia-Ukraine war, new Covid lockdowns in China, and rising global inflation. Even with all three of these ominous elements in the marketplace at present, U.S. stock indexes are now trending higher and have hit nine-week highs this week. There are signs peace talks between Russia and Ukraine are making some progress. However, it’s too early to get too optimistic on that matter.
The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading around $106.00 a barrel. An OPEC meeting is scheduled for Thursday to discuss cartel production levels from May forward. The U.S. dollar index is lower again early today. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently yielding 2.38%. On Tuesday the 2-year and 10-year notes yield spread very briefly inverted.
Traders are starting to look ahead to Friday’s monthly U.S. employment situation report for March, which is expected to see the key non-farm payrolls number come in at up 490,000, compared to a rise of 678,000 seen in the February report.
U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the ADP national employment report, the third estimate of four-quarter GDP, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down on mild profit taking after hitting a nine-week high on Tuesday. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart and the bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,631.00 and then at 4,650.00. Support for active traders is seen at Tuesday’s low of 4,565.25 and then at this week’s low of 4,509.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading after hitting a two-month high Tuesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 15,268.75 and then at 15,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 14,956.50 and then at this week’s low of 14,658.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading and not far above this week’s contract low. Bears are in solid command. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 150 1/32 and then at 151 even. Shorter-term support lies at 148 even and then at 147 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading and not far above this week’s contract low. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 122.26.5 and then at 123.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 122.00.0 and then at 121.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are higher and hit a four-week high in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, bulls have momentum and are working on starting a price uptrend. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1193 and then at 1.1250. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1100 and then at 1.1050. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $110.00 and then at this week’s high of $112.93. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $104.55 and then at $102.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures prices were mixed to higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. Corn and soybean markets on Tuesday saw bearish downside price “breakouts” from sideways trading ranges at higher levels on the daily bar charts. Those are technical clues those markets have put in tops. Wheat prices are now trending lower. The grain market bulls are now in very serious trouble. The all-important USDA planting intentions report on Thursday is in focus for grain traders. That’s one of the most important USDA reports of the year for the grain markets. Look for active trading in the immediate aftermath of that report.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff