Thursday, April 22–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mixed to mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. indexes are seeing a routine pause and some chart consolidation much of this week after last week hitting record highs.
The European Central Bank announces its latest policy decision this morning, with analysts expecting no policy changes. ECB President Christine Lagarde will likely be questioned on how long the ECB plans to keep buying bonds.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker and continuing in a near-term downtrend. Nymex crude oil prices are modestly lower and trading around $61.00 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching around 1.561%.
It’s a busy day for U.S. economic data Thursday, including the weekly jobless claims report, the Chicago Fed national activity index, existing home sales, leading economic indicators, and the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the record high of 4,183.50 and then at 4,200.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,110.50 and then at 3,980.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 14,059.50 and then at 14,200.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 13,800.00 and then at this week’s low of 13,700.50. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading today. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, recent sideways-to-higher price action at lower levels may be “basing” that puts in a market bottom. Prices are also in a fledgling uptrend on the daily chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the April high of 159 1/32 and then at 159 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at 158 even and then at 157 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 132.24.5 and then at 132.28.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 132.11.5 and then at 132.06.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.2093 and then at 1.2150. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.2000 and then at this week’s low of 1.1956. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
June Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $62.00 and then at $62.56. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $60.00 and then at $59.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures are solidly higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. Prices are at or close to their contract highs. Cold weather in the U.S. midsection this week is bullish but it’s a bit early to get too worked up about delayed corn and soybean planting. U.S. wheat did see some freeze damage this week. The world supply and demand balance sheet for the grains remains bullish and the charts are also fully bullish. All of the above suggest more upside for grain futures prices. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff