Monday, June 22–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mixed to weaker in overnight trading. U.S. stock markets are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. Traders and investors continue to weigh the positive aspect of economies continuing to come back to life and at a faster pace than most expected versus the negative aspect of a worrisome rise in Covid-19 cases worldwide, including in many states in the U.S. Importantly, the sense of the marketplace is that major central banks of the world will continue to print money if global economies show further signs of sputtering. This influx of cash into the global financial system is also supporting stock market gains despite the still seriously hobbled major economies. Many are wondering how long it will take for the negative consequences of all that easy money to show up in economies.
The important outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices near steady and trading around $39.75 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is weaker early today. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is currently around the 0.7% level.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the Chicago Fed national activity index and existing home sales.
–Jim
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U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 3,156.25 and then at the June high of 3,179.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at the overnight low of 3,027.25 and then at 3,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading as the bulls are in control with prices close to the recent record high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the record high of 10,140.00 and then at 10,250.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 9,843.50 and then at 9,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 177 24/32 and then at 178 even. Shorter-term support lies at 177 even and then at Friday’s low of 176 2/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 138.29.5 and then at 139.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 138.20.0 and then at 138.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The September U.S. dollar index is weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 97.700 and then at 98.000. Shorter-term support is seen at 97.000 and then at 96.765. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
August Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend on the daily chart appears to be restarting. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $40.17 and then at the June high of $40.69. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $39.00 and then at $38.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
US grain futures are weaker in early U.S. pre-market trading. Bulls have stabilized the corn and soybean markets but wheat prices have seen serious technical erosion—so much so that corn and soybeans will find it hard to sustain rallies, too. Grain market bulls need a weather market to develop in the U.S. Corn Belt and the clock is ticking as the most critical part of the growing season approaches for corn—early July. On tap Monday is the weekly USDA export inspections report.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff