Wednesday, October 11–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Asian and European stocks were mixed to higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to slightly firmer openings when the New York day session begins. Risk appetite is still not robust in the marketplace, amid the Israeli-Hamas war that may well escalate in the coming weeks. However, the stock markets have not been seriously roiled, at least not yet. An explanation for this from one veteran market analyst: The Middle East has been turbulent for generations. While the weekend violence in Israel ranks among the worst in the region and is a terrible human tragedy, it is not something new. Traders and investors have had to deal with Middle East instability and violence for decades. Also, as I reported Tuesday, at present the marketplace is apparently not factoring in a serious escalation in the Israel-Hamas war—namely other countries becoming significantly involved.
Traders and investors have also been somewhat assuaged this week by comments from some Federal Reserve officials that sounded less hawkish. Reads a Wall Street Journal headline today: “High bond yields likely to extend Fed’s pause.”
Focus is also on key U.S. economic data today, including the producer price index report for September, which is seen coming in at up 0.3% from October, and compares to the 0.7% rise in the August report. Also due out today is the Federal Reserve’s FOMC minutes from its last meeting.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index near steady. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly down and trading around $85.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching 4.554%. Treasury yields have down-ticked this week on flight-to-quality buying amid the Middle East turmoil.
Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey. Several Federal Reserve officials are also slated to speak today.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,419.00 and then at 4,450.00. Support for active traders is seen at Tuesday’s low of 4,366.25 and then at 4,330.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 15,383.50 and then at 15,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 15,171.75 and then at 15,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading on short covering. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 113 25/32 and then at 114 even. Shorter-term support lies at 113 even and then at the overnight low of 111 31/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher and hit a two-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 108.11.0 and then at 108.20.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 107.21.0 and then at this week’s low of 107.02.05. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
The December Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bears are still in firm overall near-term technical control. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0658 and then at 1.0700. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0551 and then at 1.0500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
November Nymex crude oil prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $87.24 and then at $88.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $84.67 and then at $83.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Grain futures prices were mixed in overnight trading. Keener risk aversion in the marketplace this week is bearish for the grains. Harvesting of soybeans and corn is in full swing and that is also a bearish seasonal factor amid commercial hedge selling. Technicals are bearish for corn, wheat and soybeans. Grain traders are looking ahead to Thursday morning’s monthly USDA supply and demand report.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.