Thursday, March 29–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. Still, world stock markets have become wobbly again, which favors the bears and still suggests major market tops are in place for the stock indexes.
The shaky global stocks markets this week have boosted safe-haven U.S. Treasury prices to multi-week highs. Yet, to the chagrin of gold bugs, their yellow metal has sold off. However, it’s my bias the gold and silver markets’ prices would benefit from continued higher volatility in world equity markets in the near term.
The key “outside markets” on Thursday morning see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher and trading around $64.50 a barrel.
U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, personal income and outlays, the ISM Chicago business survey, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 December e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Wednesday’s high of 2,633.75 and then at 2,650.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at the overnight low of 2,601.00 and then at last week’s low of 2,586.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
June Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of 6,582.25 and 6,600.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 6,469.00 and then at this week’s low of 6,421.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Prices Wednesday hit a seven-week high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 146 10/32 and then at 146 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at Wednesday’s low of 145 13/32 and then at 145 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Prices hit a seven-week high on Wednesday. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but the bulls have some momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 121.09.0 and then at 121.16.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 120.25.0 and then at 120.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The June U.S. dollar index is slightly higher on more short covering after hitting a five-week low Tuesday. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are still bearish as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 90.025 and then at 90.490. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 89.575 and then at 89.000. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
May Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $65.00 and then at $66.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $63.72 and then at $63.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Grain futures were mixed overnight. Grain market bulls have faded recently. Today the USDA planting intentions report is due out, which is one of the most important reports of the year for the grain markets. Also, the quarterly grain stocks report is issued by USDA. Look for more volatile trading in the grain markets in the wake of today’s reports.