Tuesday, August 30–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. Risk appetite is a bit improved Tuesday but still not robust. Traders and investors are still concerned about Covid lockdowns in China that are crimping the world’s second-largest economy. The U.S. data point of the day is the consumer confidence index.
The U.S. data point of the week on this unofficial last week of summer is the August U.S. employment situation report from the Labor Department on Friday. The key non-farm payrolls growth number is forecast to come it up 325,000 in August versus the July report showing a gain of 528,000 non-farm jobs.
The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices lower and trading around $95.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is lower in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback after hitting a 20-year high on Monday. Meantime, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.067%.
U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store retail indexes, the monthly and quarterly house price indexes, the S&P/CoreLogic home price indexes, and the consumer confidence index.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,100.00 and then at 4,150.00. Support for active traders is seen at Monday’s low of 4,024.00 and then at 4,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,850.00 and then at 13,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 12,563.75 and then at this week’s low of 12,480.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart and bears have the advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 137 2/32 and then at 137 22/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 136 2/32 and the at Monday’s low of 135 23/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart and bears have the technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 117.24.0 and then at 118.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 117.03.5 and then at this week’s low of 116.28.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
EURO CURRENCY
The December Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading, on more short covering. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.0169 and then at 1.0200. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0050 and then at the contract low of .9988. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading after hitting a four-week high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $97.66 and then at last week’s high of $99.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Monday’s low of $92.29 and then at $91.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures were lower overnight, on corrective pullbacks from recent gains. Beneficial rains have fallen in the Corn Belt and Plains states recently and that’s bearish for the grains, especially soybeans. However, corn and soybean futures markets are still in price uptrends on the daily bar charts. Wheat bulls have also gained some momentum just recently.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff