Thursday, March 4–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. Traders and investors are keeping a wary eye on government bond yields, which have been generally rising recently, and which have again made stock markets wobbly late this week. The U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently trading around 1.462% for its yield.
The marketplace today will closely scrutinize a speech around noon EST by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell today at a jobs summit. Traders are hoping Powell will talk about rising government bond yields and inflation prospects.
Traders are also awaiting Friday morning’s Employment Situation Report for February from the U.S. Labor Department—arguably the most important U.S. data point of the month. The key non-farm payrolls number is seen up 210,000 in February.
The key “outside markets” today see Nymex crude oil futures prices weaker and trading around $61.00 a barrel. An OPEC meeting began Thursday that the marketplace will closely monitor. It could be that with oil prices above $60 a barrel that the cartel opens up its oil spigots some more, after curbing production in recent months to prop up prices. Early reports say Saudi Arabia and Russia are discussing a joint output increase of 1 million barrels a day. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is firmer early today.
U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Challenger job-cuts report, revised productivity and costs, manufacturers’ shipments and inventories, and monthly chain store sales.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading and hit a four-week low. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 3,809.75 and then at 3,850.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 3,767.00 and then at 3,750.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker and hit a two-month low in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 12,696.00 and then at 12,800.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 12,503.00 and then at 12,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading on tepid short covering. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 159 even and then at 160 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 157 27/32 and then at 157 14/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 133.16.0 and then at this week’s high of 133.23.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 132.27.5 and then at 132.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field amid recent choppy trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below with the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.2088 and then at this week’s high of 1.2139. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.2053 and then at this week’s low of 1.2019. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
April Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $62.00 and then at $63.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $60.52 and then at $60.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures are mostly firmer in early U.S. pre-market trading. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Markets may remain choppy and sideways up until the late-March USDA planting intentions report, which is one of the most important grain market reports of the year. Grain market bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage as prices are mostly trending up—both on a near-term and longer-term basis.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff