Friday, June 26–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward steady to mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Equities investors on Friday are being buffeted by the competing forces of easy central bank money that has been flowing into stock markets, countered by rising concerns this week about a “second wave” of Covid-19 infections again squelching major economies. The Texas governor has stopped the reopening of businesses in his state as the Covid infection rate spikes and hospitals are filling up. Other U.S. states are also seeing alarming rises in infections.
The important outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices firmer and trading around $39.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is slightly down early today. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is currently around the 0.68% level.
The important U.S. economic data release of the day Friday is personal income and outlays for May. Income is seen down 7.0% and outlays (spending) is seen up 8.7% in the month, compared to April. The marketplace wants to see if today’s numbers beat expectations on the upside. The other data point in the U.S. today is the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading as trading has been sideways recently. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 3,100.00 and then at this week’s high of 3,145.75. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at the overnight low of 3,048.75 and then at this week’s low of 3,005.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are modestly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls remain in firm technical command. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 10,150.00 and then at the record high of 10,296.25. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 10,000.00 and then at this week’s low of 9,843.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 178 20/32 and then at 179 even. Shorter-term support lies at Thursday’s low of 177 27/32 and then at 177 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid near-term technical advantage as prices trade sideways at higher levels. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 139.03.0 and then at 139.10.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 138.24.0 and then at this week’s low of 138.16.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
EURO CURRENCY
The September Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but a price uptrend has stalled. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Thursday’s high of 1.1279 and then at 1.1347. Shorter-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 1.1210 and then at this week’s low of 1.1189. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
August Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is still in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $40.00 and then at $41.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $38.00 and then at this week’s low of $37.08. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
US grain futures are steady to mixed in early U.S. pre-market trading. Grain market bears are firmly in control to suggest sideways to lower price action in the near term. Corn is likely to be the market leader in the near term. The only thing that will rescue the bulls is a weather market developing in the U.S. Corn Belt in the coming weeks, which the long-term weather forecasts are not seeing at this time.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff