Tuesday, June 28–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mostly up overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. Trader and investor risk appetite is more upbeat on news China is loosening its Covid restrictions. Also, there are also notions in the marketplace the Federal Reserve may not be so aggressive on tightening its monetary policy, after recent downbeat U.S. economic data hints of impending recession.
The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading around $111.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is near steady in early U.S. trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.222%.
U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and chain store sales indexes, the monthly house price index, the S&P/Core-Logic house price indexes, the Richmond Fed business survey and the consumer confidence index.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have some momentum. More gains this week would suggest a market bottom is in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 3,948.00 and then at 4,000.00. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 3,885.75 and then at 3,850.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading. More price gains this week would suggest a market bottom is in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral to bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’ high of 12,262.00 and then at 12,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 11,971.00 and then at 11,750.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears are in firm overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 135 18/32 and then at this week’s high of 136 6/32. Shorter-term support lies at 134 even and then at 133 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears are in firm overall near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 117.01.0 and then at this week’s high of 117.13.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 116.08.9 and then at 116.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
EURO CURRENCY
The September Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0678 and then at 1.0700. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0600 and then at last week’s low of 1.0534. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $113.00 and then at $115.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $109.79 and then at $108.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures prices were higher in early U.S. pre-market trading, on short covering and perceived bargain hunting. The recent general commodity market sell off and benign weather in the U.S. Corn Belt are likely to cap gains. Traders are awaiting Thursday’s USDA quarterly grain stocks and acreage reports—one of the most important report days of the year for the grains.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff