Wednesday, April 20–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stocks markets were mixed overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes have become wobbly and are in near-term price downtrends. Equities traders are presently focused on corporate earnings reports. Risk appetite is not robust in the marketplace amid the Russia-Ukraine war and the Covid outbreak in China.
Nymex crude oil futures prices are firmer today and trading around $103.25 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is solidly lower early today after hitting a two-year high Tuesday. The closely watched yield on the 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 2.57%, which is well down from levels seen earlier this week.
U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, existing home sales, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report and the Federal Reserve’s beige book.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Prices are still trending down on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,500.00 and then at 4,550.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,400.00 and then at this week’s low of 4,355.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading and are also trending lower on the daily chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 14,350.00 and then at 14,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 14,000.00 and then at this week’s low of 13,729.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher and did hit another contract low in early U.S. trading. Bears are in strong technical command. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 141 3/32 and then at 142 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight contract low of 138 14/32 and then at 138 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher after hitting a contract low overnight. Bears are in solid near-term technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 120.00.5 and then at 120.10.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight contract low of 118.19.5 and then at 118.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0900 and then at 1.0950. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0807 and then at the contract low of 1.0781. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $104.00 and then at $105.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $101.00 and then at $100.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures prices were mixed to weaker in early U.S. pre-market trading. Corn and soybean bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat bulls have the firm technical edge. The grain trade disruption from the Russia-Ukraine war and “inflation trade” have been supporting buying interest in the grain futures markets. However, the bulls appear tired now and in need of a pause.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff