Wednesday, July 6–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mixed overnight, with European shares mostly up and Asian shares mostly down. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins. Recession and inflation worries are still tamping down trader and investor risk appetite, although U.S. stock indexes did rebound from lower price levels Tuesday to close with modest gains. It appears recession fears are trumping inflation fears at present, evidenced by the major sell offs in many raw commodity futures markets Tuesday, led by a drop of around $9 a barrel in Nymex crude oil futures.
In overnight news, the OPEC secretary general Mohammed Barkindo, a native of Nigeria, has died suddenly. Also, top ministers of U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s government have resigned.
Traders are awaiting this afternoon’s release of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve.
The U.S. data point of the week is Friday’s employment situation report for June. The key non-farm payrolls number is expected to come in up 250,000 compared to the 390,000 rise in the May report.
The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices firmer and trading around $100.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is a bit weaker after hitting a 20-year high Tuesday. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 2.814%. The 2-year and 10-year note are presently inverted (meaning the 2-year yield is higher than the 10-year), which is another clue that the U.S. economy is teetering on recession.
Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the Johnson Redbook and chain store sales reports, the U.S. services purchasing managers index (PMI), the ISM report on business services, the job openings and labor turnover survey (JOLTS), and the global services PMI.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 3,857.75 and then at 3,900.00. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 3,741.25 and then at 3,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is even with the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 11,873.75 and then at 12,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 11,500.00 and then at last week’s low of 11,351.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading after hitting a four-week high on Tuesday. Bears are still in overall near-term technical control, but bulls are working on a fledgling price uptrend on the daily chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 141 17/32 and then at 142 even. Shorter-term support lies at 141 even and then at 140 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears are in overall near-term technical control but bulls are working on a price uptrend on the daily chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 120.07.0 and then at 120.16.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 119.21.0 and then at 119.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
EURO CURRENCY
The September Euro currency futures are down and hit another 20-year low in early U.S. trading. Bears have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0350 and then at 1.0400. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0250 and then at 1.0200. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
Nymex crude oil prices are a firmer in early U.S. trading, on a tepid rebound from strong losses posted Tuesday. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $102.14 and then at $105.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $99.03 and then at this week’s low of $97.43. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures were mixed to higher overnight as the markets try to stabilize after Tuesday’s sharp losses. Recession worries and non-threatening growing weather in the U.S. Corn Belt at present have the grain market bulls running for cover. This week is historically a very important trading week in the grain futures markets. Existing price trends can be accelerated or reversed as weather patterns in early July can make dramatic shifts. At present, it appears the bears are poised to push the grain markets still lower.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff