Wednesday, April 18–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mostly higher again overnight. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. Strong first-quarter corporate earnings reports are driving the bulls this week, while geopolitics has taken a back seat, for now. Risk appetite is keen so far this week, which is bullish for the stock market and bearish for safe-haven gold.
In overnight news, China effectively slightly eased its monetary policy Wednesday by lowering the reserve requirement ratio for its banks.
The Euro zone consumer price index for March was reported up 1.0% from February and up 1.3%, year-on-year. Those numbers were very close to market expectations.
The key “outside markets” on Wednesday morning see the U.S. dollar index trading higher. Nymex crude oil prices are also higher and trading just above $67.00 a barrel.
U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the Federal Reserve’s beige book, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 December e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 2,725.00 and then at 2,735.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at 2,700.00 and then at this week’s low of 2,660.75. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
June Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are higher and hit another three-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 6,875.00 and then at 6,900.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 6,816.50 and then at 6,800.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 145 27/32 and then at this week’s high of 146 2/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at 145 10/32 and then at 145 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 120.18.0 and then at 120.24.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 120.07.0 and then at 120.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The June U.S. dollar index is firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 89.555 and then at 90.000. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 89.195 and then at this week’s low of 88.945. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
May Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls are still in firm near-term technical control. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the April high of $67.76 and then at $68.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $66.56 and then at $66.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Grain futures were mixed to higher overnight. Cold, wet and snowy weather in the U.S. Midwest remains bullish for the grains, as it is prompting planting delays for corn, and possibly will also for soybeans, and it’s also hurting the wheat crop.