Monday, April 4–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stocks markets were mixed but mostly firmer overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes are in near-term price uptrends. Markets in mainland China were closed for a holiday Monday.
The Russia-Ukraine war drags on, with the atrocities inflicted by Russian dictator Putin’s aggression becoming more apparent to the world. Such may prompt the U.S. and European Union to implement even more sanctions on Russia, including on its oil and natural gas exports. Still, from a markets perspective, not much has changed in the war the past couple weeks. That has allowed many markets to stabilize and become less volatile.
Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and trading around $99.50 a barrel. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is higher early today. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently yielding 2.395%.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the employment trends index, and manufacturers’ shipments and inventories.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Prices are still trending higher on the daily bar chart and the bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,600.00 and then at the March high of 4,631.00. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 4,501.25 and then at 4,450.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the March high of 15,268.75 and then at 15,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 14,658.75 and then at 14,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears are in solid technical command. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 150 13/32 and then at 151 even. Shorter-term support lies at Friday’s low of 147 29/32 and then at 147 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Friday’s high of 122.21.5 and then at 123.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at Friday’s low of 121.24.0 and then at 121.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1083 and then at 1.1105. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1000 and then at last week’s low of 1.0977. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $102.50 and then at $105.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at last week’s low of $97.78 and then at $96.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures prices were higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. Corn and soybean bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage, but have faded recently. Wheat bulls and bears are on a level technical playing field. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report. Focus of grain traders is shifting to U.S. weather patters as corn and soybean planting season is not far off now.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff