Friday, June 15–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mostly weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. World trade war concerns are on the front burner of the marketplace late this week.
The Trump administration is set to levy $100 billion of new tariffs on Chinese imports as soon as today. It is expected that China will again retaliate with its own tariffs on U.S. imports, with agriculture products in the crosshairs. Commodity market prices have been hit by worries of a full-blown trade war between the leading economies of the world.
Traders and investors are still buzzing about the plunge in the Euro currency and big rally in the U.S. dollar index on Thursday. The surprisingly dovish European Central Bank meeting results on Thursday had a major impact on the world foreign exchange markets.
The Bank of Japan today at its regular meeting left its very easy monetary policy unchanged.
The Euro zone consumer price index rose by 0.5% in May from April, and was up 1.9%, year-on-year, it was reported today. Those numbers were right in line with market expectations.
The other key “outside market” today finds Nymex crude oil prices modestly lower and trading just below $67.00 a barrel.
U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the Empire State manufacturing survey, industrial production and capacity utilization and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading, on more profit taking after hitting a three-month high this week. The bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 2,796.00 and then at 2,815.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at the overnight low of 2,772.00 and then at 2,755.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
September Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are slightly lower on profit taking after hitting a contract high on Thursday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 7,321.00 and then at 7,350.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 7,250.00 and then at Thursday’s low of 7,205.25. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on more short covering. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 144 even and then at 144 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 143 12/32 and then at 142 25/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on more short covering. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 119.23.0 and then at 119.28.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 119.14.5 and then at 119.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The September U.S. dollar index is firmer and hit a contract high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and have gained fresh power late this week. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight contract high of 94.820 and then at 95.000. Shorter-term support is seen at 94.250 and then at 94.000. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
July Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $67.16 and then at $67.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $66.00 and then at $65.52. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
Grain futures were lower overnight on heightened U.S. ag trade worries and good growing weather in the U.S. Corn Belt. Some weather forecasters are talking about hot and dry conditions in late June, into early July, but with rains mixed in.