Friday, April 12–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
Asian and European stock indexes were mixed to weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins.
The U.S. corporate earnings season gets underway today, with big-bank results released, including JP Morgan and Wells Fargo. Several bank industry analysts are expecting somewhat downbeat earnings reports for the first quarter of this year.
In overnight news, China reported its import and export activity for March. Exports were up 14.2%, year-on-year, while imports were down 7.6% in the same period. These latest figures are deemed upbeat for China’s economy, given that in February its exports declined 20.7% from a year ago. Forecasters had expected a rise in China’s exports of around 9% in March.
The key outside markets today find the U.S. dollar index lower. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $64.50 a barrel.
U.S. economic reports due for release include import and export prices, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey. Also, the IMF and World Bank spring meetings get under way.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading today and hit another six-month high overnight. Bulls have the firm near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 2,915.00 and then at 2,925.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at the overnight low of 2,890.75 and then at this week’s low of 2,877.25. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and close to this week’s six-month high. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 7,661.00 and then at 7,700.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 7,600.00 and then at this week’s low of 7,561.25. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower early today. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading late this week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 147 16/32 and then at the overnight high of 148 2/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the April low of 147 1/32 and then at 146 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower and hit a three-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading but still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 123.16.0 and then at the overnight high of 123.21.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 123.07.0 and then at 123.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The June U.S. dollar index is lower today. Bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at Thursday’s high of 96.860 and then at this week’s high of 97.020. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 96.405 and then at 96.000. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
May Nymex crude oil prices are higher and not far below this week’s five-month high. Bulls have the firm near-term technical advantage and are keeping a gentle uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $64.79 and then at $65.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $64.00 and then at this week’s low of $63.13. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Grain futures were firmer overnight, supported on short covering and a weaker U.S. dollar index today. Grain market bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff