Monday, February 13–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Global stock markets were mixed overnight, with European shares mostly higher and Asian shares mostly lower. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins.
Traders and investors are awaiting the U.S. economic data point of the week, which is the consumer price index report for January. The CPI is seen up 6.2%, year-on-year, compared to the rise of 6.5% in the December report. On Thursday, the U.S. producer price index report is released.
In overnight news, the European Union forecast Euro zone inflation in 2023 at 5.6%, which is down from 6.1% in its previous forecast for 2023.
The key outside markets see the U.S. dollar index slightly firmer. Nymex crude oil futures prices are weaker and trading around $79.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.732%.
There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Monday.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart, but the uptrend is in jeopardy. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,150.00 and then at 4,170.25. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 4,060.75 and then at 4,007.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the near-term chart advantage as prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. However, that price uptrend is in jeopardy. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,500.00 and then at 12,650.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 12,243.25 and then at 12,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer and hit a five-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Friday’s high of 128 3/32 and then at 129 even. Shorter-term support lies at 126 16/32 and then at 126 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady and hit a five-week low in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 113.00.0 and then at Friday’s high of 113.07.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 112.16.0 and then at 112.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
EURO CURRENCY
The March Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading but hit a five-week low overnight. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading a bit. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0750 and then at Friday’s high of 1.0772. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0650 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
March Nymex crude oil prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of $80.33 and then at $81.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $78.00 and then at $76.52. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Corn and soybean market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat futures bears have the overall chart advantage but there are now technical clues the wheat markets have bottomed out. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff