Monday, March 22–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins.
In overnight news, the Turkish lira dropped around 10% against the U.S. dollar Monday following the abrupt firing of Turkey’s top central bank official Saturday by Turkey’s president. While this news has not significantly impacted the currency and financial markets, traders will keep a close eye on the Turkish lira in the near term.
The key “outside markets” today see Nymex crude oil futures prices higher and trading around $61.70 a barrel this morning. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is slightly down early today. The U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is fetching 1.67% Monday morning.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the Chicago Fed national activity index and existing home sales.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 3,925.00 and then at 3,950.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 3,875.00 and then at 3,850.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 13,000.00 and then at 13,150.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 12,788.50 and then at last week’s low of 12,681.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher on more short covering after hitting a contract low last week. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 155 14/32 and then at 156 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 154 10/32 and then at 154 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading on more short covering after hitting a contract low last week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 131.24.0 and then at 131.28.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 131.07.0 and then at the contract low of 131.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Friday’s high of 1.1959 and then at 1.2014. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1892 and then at the March low of 1.1861. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
April Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but a price uptrend on the daily chart has been negated, to suggest a near-term market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $62.50 and then at $63.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $60.39 and then at $60.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures are weaker in early U.S. pre-market trading. Trading remains choppy as the grain traders await the very important March 31 USDA planting intentions and quarterly grains stocks reports. Trading is likely to remain quieter ahead of that data. Grain market bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. One important element: grain traders need to keep an eye on crude oil prices. Thursday’s big price decline in crude fired a shot across the bow for raw commodity market bulls. If oil prices take out last week’s low, such would be one clue that many of the raw commodity sector markets that had been in rally modes, may have topped out, at least for the near term, including the grains. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff