Tuesday, April 6–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mixed overnight, with Asian shares mostly down and European shares mostly up. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward modestly lower openings when the New York day session begins, following recent good gains that pushed the Dow and S&P 500 indexes to record highs Monday. The general, over-riding theme in the marketplace at present is one of upbeat trader and investor attitudes, on ideas global economies will rebound strongly the second half of this year as Covid-19 gets tamped down. At least for now, worries about new waves of the pandemic, huge government spending programs producing problematic inflation, and a potentially over-inflated stock market are being brushed aside.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $59.70 a barrel, after getting hammered lower Monday due to energy demand worries. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching around 1.707%.
U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, the IDB/TIPP economic optimism report, and International Monetary Fund forecasts.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading and did hit another contract and record high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight record high of 4,074.50 and then at 4,100.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at Monday’s low of 4,021.00 and then at 4,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are modestly down in early U.S. trading after hitting a six-week high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 13,622.25 and then at 13,700.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 13,500.00 and then at 13,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading today. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 156 11/32 and then at last week’s high of 156 26/32. Shorter-term support lies at Monday’s low of 155 6/32 and then at 154 20/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading after setting a contract low Monday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 131.14.0 and then at 131.20.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the contract low of 130.25.5 and then at 130.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1839 and then at 1.1875. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1800 and then at Monday’s low of 1.1753. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
May Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but trading has been choppy and sideways. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $60.34 and then at $61.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $58.62 and then at this week’s low of $57.63. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures are mixed in early U.S. pre-market trading. Corn and soybean bulls are still in command. Wheat remains the follower. Focus of grain traders is now on U.S. Corn Belt weather conditions and early planting progress.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff