Tuesday, April 9–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
Asian and European stock indexes were mostly higher in trading overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins.
Traders and investors in stocks and stock indexes are a bit more nervous today after President Trump on Monday threatened the European Union with $11 billion in tariffs on EU imports of several products into the U.S. The Trump administration is taking aim at EU subsidies provided to Airbus.
The key outside markets today find the U.S. dollar index weaker and hitting a nearly two-week low, on a corrective pullback from recent gains. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and hit another five-month high of $64.79 overnight.
U.S. economic reports due for release Tuesday include the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, the NFIB small business index, the International Monetary Fund’s world outlook report, and the IBD/TIPP economic optimism index. The economic data pace picks up rapidly on Wednesday and for the rest of the week, including Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC minutes.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading today on a mild corrective pullback after hitting a six-month high overnight. Bulls have the firm near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 2,915.00 and then at 2,925.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at Monday’s low of 2,884.25 and then at 2,865.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading after hitting a six-month high overnight. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 7,633.75 and then at 7,650.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 7,561.25 and then at 7,522.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher early today. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage after last week’s downside correction. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 148 7/32 and then at 148 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at 147 16/32 and then at last week’s low of 147 1/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage after last week’s downside correction. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Monday’s high of 123.22.5 and then at 123.27.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 123.13.0 and then at last week’s low of 123.08.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The June U.S. dollar index is weaker again and hit a nearly two-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 96.700 and then at Monday’s high of 97.020. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 96.480 and then at 96.250. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
May Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher and hit another five-month high overnight. Bulls have the firm near-term technical advantage and are keeping a gentle uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $65.00 and then at $66.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $64.00 and then at Monday’s low of $63.13. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Grain futures were mixed overnight. Traders will closely scrutinize today’s USDA monthly supply and demand report for the grains, which is likely to favor the bearish camp. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage in the grains. It’s very likely going to take a weather market in the Corn Belt in the coming few months to jumpstart any rallies in the grain markets.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.